Third wave of Covid-19 hits rural areas

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With Halloween coming up this weekend, public health authorities are concerned that people understand we are experiencing the uncontrolled spread of Covid-19 in Arkansas, particularly rural areas. Dr. Joe Thompson, CEO of the Arkansas Center for Health Improvement (ACHI), said it is vitally important that people make alternatives plans for Halloween that don’t include traditional trick or treating, hayrides and haunted houses.

“People are getting tired of the Covid,” Thompson said in late October as the number of new Covid-19 infections in Arkansas continued to break records. “We’re letting our guard down and this virus is taking advantage of that. That is why we are seeing the spread of what is a deadly virus for some. We do not need to be afraid, but it is really important that we be smart. We know how this virus spreads and how to stop it. Masks work and gravity works. If you are practicing social distancing, gravity pulls the virus down to the ground. Along with frequent handwashing, these are tools we use in this battle. We just need to be responsible.”

Thanksgiving could be a much bigger challenge for many families than Halloween, and Thompson said it is not too soon for families to be discussing plans for an alternative Thanksgiving. He pointed to a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) case study from a summer family gathering that showed 11 of 14 family members who stayed inside with a teen infected with the virus contracted Covid-19. Six who visited the house but did not stay overnight, remained outdoors, and maintained physical distance did not get infected.

“Folks who are thinking about bringing in visitors from all over the country for Thanksgiving, that is not smart,” Thompson said. “There are strategies to minimize the infection. We can get together and be smart. This is a very infectious virus. It is a crafty virus. As many as fifty percent of people who are infected and infecting other people don’t have any symptoms. While half of the people have no problem, the other half can get very sick.”

Thompson said Covid-19 is spreading rapidly because people are getting together for family events, or even to watch Friday night football.

“If you are not careful, this is where this invisible virus spreads,” Thompson said. “But because of politics and everything else, we haven’t had a clear message about what needs to happen. We need a clear message. This is a real threat in all of our communities. We know what we have to do in our new normal lives by wearing masks, maintaining distance and using good hand hygiene.”

While the number of Covid-19 hospitalizations is worrisome, Thompson is more concerned about the availability of healthcare workers more than the available number of ventilators and intensive care unit beds.

“Someone on a ventilator needs nurses and respiratory therapists 24/7,” Thompson said. “I’m worried there won’t be enough staff or, if they get sick themselves, they have to go into isolation leading to staffing shortages.”

While there has been progress in treating Covid-19, and death rates have decreased, Thompson thinks it is unlikely to have a knockout drug that comes out soon, and he predicts having a vaccine readily available to the public is months away.

Recent surveys have shown only about half of Americans plan to take a vaccine when it comes out.

“We are unfortunately in a time where there is a lot of noise and not much signal,” Thompson said. “The vaccines are going to have data behind them to show how effective and safe they are. Hopefully the American public will get a clear message about when it is time and safe to get vaccinated. Let data drive this. Don’t let the vaccine become the political football it has become.”

ACHI statistics indicate that .2 percent of people in Eureka Springs have been newly diagnosed with Covid-19 compared to .68 percent in Green Forest, and .57 percent in Berryville. Thompson said the greatest concern would be with new infection rates of one percent or higher.

The ACHI report on greater Eureka Springs (the zip codes assigned to Eureka Springs) indicates the city has had 88 known infections, with 16 new infections. Holiday Island has had 34 infections, with none active and no new cases within the past two weeks.

Early on during the pandemic, testing wasn’t readily available and not much was known about Covid-19, particularly when caused by fatalities from heart attacks and strokes instead of pneumonia. Researchers have now looked the number of expected deaths compared to what was seen between March 1 and August 1 and found a 20 percent increase in expected deaths in the U.S., or 225,530 excess deaths, with 67 percent of the excess deaths attributed to Covid-19.

In Arkansas during the same time period, there were 1,221 excess deaths, with 48 percent attributed to Covid-19. That represents 586 excess deaths. During the third week in October, Arkansas had passed 100,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 with deaths estimated at 1,772 among confirmed and probable cases.

Thompson said he thinks early in the pandemic Arkansas got relatively protected compared to areas like New York, Los Angeles or Seattle because Arkansas doesn’t have an international airport. He said the first wave of Covid-19 was in high-density cities. The second wave was in regional cities like Atlanta and Little Rock.

“The third wave is now in the rural parts of America,” he said.

Tyson Food processing plants in Berryville and Green Forest are the largest employers in their cities and in the county. Most of the initial cases in the county came from the Tyson plants. Two workers at the Berryville Tyson plant died from Covid.

According to the ADH, the Tyson chicken processing plant in Green Forest currently leads the state in the number of active occupational cases of Covid-19 in with nine infected workers. The plant has had a total of 134 cases with 125 of those considered recovered. There have been 376 people testing positive who live within the Green Forest School District (all residents, not just those affiliated with the schools) with 53 of those new infections.

The population of the Berryville School District has had 443 cumulative cases with 48 of those new infections. A separate tally for cases in the Berryville schools include 16 staff and 52 students with eight cases considered active.

Among all residents of the Eureka Springs Public Schools, ADH reports 82 known infections, with 16 new infections. Eureka Springs didn’t make the ADH list of schools having at least five cases of Covid-19.

Totals in Carroll County had grown to 951 with 13 deaths as of Oct. 26.