A number of residents of the Gulf Coast moved to the Eureka Springs area after Hurricane Katrina devastated their communities and, in some cases, destroyed their homes. But it turns out the risk of hurricanes and coastal flooding is about the only major category where Arkansas scores well in a study by Climate Central, a group of researchers focused on the effects of climate change.
“Our research indicated that while every state would be impacted by rising temperatures, there are a handful of unlucky states that by virtue of their geographic placement will be especially threatened by climate change,” states an article at safehome.org. “The impacts of climate change are vast and complex, but there are five major categories of effects — extreme heat, drought, wildfires, coastal flooding and inland flooding. Each of those categories carries a range of impacts of their own. For instance, extreme heat increases the risk of illness or death in humans and animals, but it also impacts agricultural yields and strains the electrical grid.”
Nine out of ten of the worst hit states are in the South. Arkansas comes in eighth from the bottom with a score of 248. The worst state is Florida with a score of 308. Other states scoring lower than Arkansas include (in order) Texas, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, Louisiana and South Carolina. Vermont tops the list of the safest states for climate change with a score of 30 followed by New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Colorado.
“Arkansas is not looking too good from a quality-of-life perspective,” retired educator and current rancher Katy Turnbaugh said. “There are studies showing that Carroll County could experience a heat index of 125 degrees in the future. Arkansas’s worst risks are drought and wildfires, and the state has done little to mitigate those risks.”
June and July were very hot and dry with many ranchers selling off their cattle. Carroll County ties for being the third biggest cattle producing county in the state. If drought and extreme heat continue, the area’s economy would be harmed.
Turnbaugh has worked for 18 years to build up her pastures to store organic matter and make them more resilient from drought. But earlier this summer, she was concerned with being able to provide adequate water and food to her pastured livestock and poultry.
“Surface water was a huge problem,” Turnbaugh said. “Since the drought, I have added 6,000 gallons of rainwater storage for livestock, irrigation, and the ability to fight wildfire.”
In August, the area received significant rainfall and experienced cooler-than-normal temperatures.
“It is gorgeous out there now,” Turnbaugh said. “But I still remember June and July. I think that is a precursor of what we can expect in the future. As individuals and a community, we have to look at how we mitigate this. How do we manage the change? I think we have a way to go.”
Turnbaugh has invested in solar panels that produce most of the power used on the farm, and this year added a mini split heat pump. She line-dries her clothes, uses her Prius to haul supplies, livestock and poultry, and thinks creatively about deep adaptation, as well as mitigation.
The risk of wildfire increased substantially this year in areas like Northwest Arkansas with large acreages of unmanaged forests with few fire breaks and vulnerable structures.
“A lot of people don’t have any kind of break between vegetation and their house,” she said. “Homes are made out of flammable materials. We are ill prepared here for what is coming.”
She and other growers here have found it unnerving this past summer to see harvests so greatly diminished by the extreme heat.
“I am seeing so little reporting on what people are going to eat as the climate keeps warming,” Turnbaugh said. “As I watch my ability to produce food dramatically diminished in a year like this, what is happening further west where wheat is grown, and further north where corn is grown? What do we do when this is an every-year occurrence? You have a window. Open it. Let some fresh air ideas in. Waiting to mitigate climate change until food costs four times what it is now, and water is five times as scarce, is climate change denial at its most consequential.”
When she was teaching at Eureka Springs, her high school students received an EPA grant that culminated in attending an event in Louisiana where a four-star general spoke. His whole point was that future wars will be about water, not oil. He said that it would happen in the lifetime of the students.
“That was about ten years ago and we still haven’t even woken up to that piece of the climate problem,” Turnbaugh said.
It has been suggested that it might be better to call it “climate weirding” than “global warming” because what is being seen is extremes like February 2021 when it got down to 26° below in some parts of Carroll County. Turnbaugh had difficulty watering her animals because the water would instantly freeze.
Another stress expected is higher property insurance rates.
“We are going to see more things like I experienced when my farm was impacted from the tornado that hit Rogers in 2019,” she said. “I had windows broken in my house, a roof torn off a barn, and two greenhouses heavily damaged. That cost me about $5,000 and my insurance company about $10,000. We think we have inflation now? You haven’t seen anything. If you want a different outcome, what do you need to change right now to build that better outcome? What local, state, and national mitigation strategies need to be in place?”
The 2021 Policygenius Best & Worst States for Climate Change Index ranks Arkansas as the fifth worst state in the 48 contiguous states for climate change. The part of the ranking that considers how the state is responding to current and future climate change threats gives Arkansas an “F”.
Turnbaugh likens climate change to a dimmer switch instead of a light switch. Some summers won’t be so bad and others will be terrible.
“A heat index of 125° F? I can’t handle 105,” Turnbaugh said. “We need to behave very differently right now.”