In the first week of October, resident Doug Stowe was pleased to see the infection rate in Carroll County drop to .54, which means that the county should see a continuing reduction in cases.
“When the infection rate is one, it means that each case brings an additional new infection,” Stowe said. “When the infection rate is less than one it means that the rate of reinfection is falling.”
Covidactnow.org statistics show Carroll County daily new cases per hundred thousand residents, the infection rate, and percentage vaccinated. You can also check neighboring counties.
“Compared to other counties in Arkansas we appear to be managing Covid-19 better than most,” Stowe said. “Our infection rate is only .54, meaning that incidence of Covid is dropping here. Our new cases per hundred thousand rate is also considerably lower than most.”
Stowe said he will continue wearing his mask when indoors with others.
But just a few days later, by Oct. 11, things weren’t looking as good. Stowe said the statistics showed rising infection numbers in the county. The infection rates had increased to .67 with daily new cases estimated at 13.1 per 100,000. The test positivity rate was low at 3.6 percent, but Carroll County is considered at high risk for transmission because of low vaccination rates with only about 46.5 percent of adults receiving one shot or more.
Gov. Asa Hutchinson announced on Sunday, Oct. 10, that the Arkansas Department of Health had done a “data cleanup” that added 289 probable and suspected Covid-19 deaths that go back to March 2020. ADH also reported the first increase in active cases of Covid in the state in a month, but hospitalizations continued to decline.
In Carroll County, six additional confirmed and probable deaths were added by Oct. 11. The death toll from Covid-19 increased from 67 Oct. 8 to 73 Oct. 11.
“They are likely part of our data cleanup,” ADH Public Information Officer Danyelle McNeill said. “These were deaths of Arkansas residents that occurred out of state, and almost all would be considered delayed reports. I don’t know how many were recent in Carroll County, though.”
The New York Times Covid tracker shows Carroll County with 15 new cases of Covid per 100,000 people in the past two weeks, about half the national rate of 29 per 100,000. Carroll County rates were down 23 percent for the previous two weeks ending Oct. 11.
Dr. Dan Bell, co-founder of the ECHO Clinic, said he isn’t too concerned with the increases being seen.
“It still looks like a steady decline, but the statistics aren’t linear,” Bell said. “I think mostly things are good news, but there will be bumps up and down in the data. I don’t think it changes the here and now on the ground. I think it will decline a little further before it goes back in the winter. The winter surge won’t be as bad as this past year, but I think we will see increased cases as people gather for the holidays.
“This is a good time to get vaccinated,” he said. “If you are eligible for a booster, please get it. Hopefully, the Pfizer vaccine will soon be approved for children 5-11 years old.”
People over 65 have the highest vaccination rates, so active cases in Arkansas are most common now in younger people with about 1,194 active cases in 25- to 34-year-olds. About 1,110 of active cases are in 35- to 44-year-olds while those 18 and younger represent 1,937 active cases.
ADH estimates that since Feb. 1, 87.2 percent of total cases have been in the unvaccinated. About 89.4 percent of hospitalizations and 87.3 percent of deaths have been in the unvaccinated.
Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are available at the Eureka Springs Hospital from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. on Fridays, and the hospital holds special clinics in the community upon request such as at local schools. Catherine Pappas, community liaison for ESH, said this past Friday 26 people received shots. Nine people received the Pfizer booster, two received the second shot of Pfizer and 15 people got third shots of Moderna. Pappas said when booster shots of Moderna are approved, it is likely to be half the dose of the first and second shots. Pappas said approval of Pfizer for 5- to 11-year-olds is expected by the end of the month. Pappas said that Pfizer shots for the younger age group are likely to be half the dose of the adult shots, but that decision has yet to be finalized.
The Holiday Island Pharmacy has been offering free Moderna vaccinations on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. The pharmacy is closing Oct. 15, but customers will still be served until Oct. 30. Pappas said the pharmacy has agreed to give its remaining stock of vaccines to Eureka Springs Hospital.