Omicron hard to anticipate

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Three additional deaths from Covid-19 have been reported in Carroll County as of Dec. 6, according to figures from the Arkansas Department of Health (ADH), which lists deaths increasing from 75 to 78. New cases in the county are up slightly from 48 on Nov. 29, and a low of 23 new cases Nov. 1, to 40 new cases for the week ending Dec. 6. ADH shows active cases in Carroll County have gone up from 48 the previous week, to 60.

Currently there is uncertainty about the Covid-19 variant Omicron. News of the variant caused a major decline in international stock markets over concerns the variant could cause more illnesses and death leading to shutdowns and more economic disruption.

Joseph W. Thompson, MD, president and CEO of the Arkansas Center for Health Improvement, said in a phone interview there are three concerns important to keep in perspective when considering Omicron.

“As long as this virus continues to spread as much as it is spreading, the chances increase of a mutation that will evade the protection of vaccines,” Thompson said. “The ultimate fear of a new variant is that the vaccines don’t work as well. As long as we are seeing these mutations, that is a possibility. The second concern with a new variant is if it is more transmissible, and the third is if it is more deadly. We still don’t know if the Omicron variant has the potential for one of those three outcomes.”

Mutations on the spike protein of the virus are being tested to see if vaccines are effective.

Thompson said there hasn’t been a variant of concern in quite a while, not since Delta.

“We know Delta is the most commonly transmitted virus now and is causing unprotected individuals to get sick and die, and we don’t have vaccination rates high enough to slow down the spread,” Thompson said. “Unprotected people are going to be infected more. This is a new virus our bodies have never seen before, a tricky virus that has the potential to mutate beyond our control. We are not through this yet.”

He also urges people to not panic, but act on what medical experts do know, and that is that vaccination, including getting boosters, is the best way to be protected.

There are two drug treatments that have been developed by Pfizer and Merck. Some experts have said they could be a game changer by reducing serious Covid illness, which could help people and businesses get back to normal. Thompson doesn’t expect either of these two drugs will be “knockout drugs,” meaning people won’t have to worry about Covid-19.

“While these are promising drugs that can be taken early in the illness, they don’t eliminate the risk of death,” Thompson said. “In fact, deaths and hospitalizations in people with Covid-19 were reduced by less than 50 percent with the Merck drug. These drugs do not replace vaccination. They just offer one more tool to clinicians when people get sick.”

News of the Omicron variant is believed to be behind an increase in state and local vaccinations for Covid.

“We have seen an increase in demand for Covid vaccinations,” Angie Shaw, CEO of Eureka Springs Hospital, said. “I feel the new variant has changed a lot of minds. Some of the first vaccinations we did last week were people who mentioned that the variant is what spurred them to come get vaccinated. I think vaccinations are going well.”

The hospital administered more than 70 shots on Dec. 3, Shaw said. There were some first shots, a lot of boosters, and some pediatric doses. ESH is scheduled to do a pediatric clinic Dec. 10 at the Eureka Schools. The hours of the hospital’s regular Friday vaccination clinics are changed to 11 a.m. – 2 p.m. on December 10 to allow time to finish up vaccinations at the school.

Shaw said the number of people testing positive for Covid at the hospital emergency room has continued to be low. Carroll County has one of the lowest new Covid rates in the state.

Masks indoors are no longer mandatory, and more people appear to be coming out to holiday celebrations without a mask. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends people still wear masks indoors in areas where the risk of Covid is deemed high or very high.

Shaw said wearing a mask is entirely up to the person.

“I see some people with masks and a lot of people without masks,” Shaw said. “I think a lot of things have opened up a little. But with this new variant, I’d say protect yourself. If you go into an area where you feel unsafe, wear a mask. Inside a building, I would play it safe.”

Another factor that could be fueling an increased demand for booster shots is that breakthrough cases of Covid-19 in people who received the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine, or the two-shot Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, are increasing. The FDA approved booster shots because of waning immunity, and some question if drug companies that have already made billions on Covid vaccines now stand to have a permanent source of large profits from boosters every six months to a year.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease specialist, said recently he is hopeful that booster shots will last long enough that additional shots won’t be needed every six months to a year.

ECHO will continue its drive-through Covid booster clinics Dec. 8 and Dec. 15 with appointments available from 1 to 3:15 p.m. To register for an appointment for the Moderna booster, go to the website bit.ly/echo-vax.