The number of new cases of Covid-19 in Carroll County and Arkansas are now nearly three times as high as the previous surge back in July. As of January 18, there were about 93,000 active cases of Covid-19 in Arkansas, and Carroll County had zoomed up to 498 active cases compared to 83 in early January, according to the Arkansas Department of Health. The ADH reported three additional Covid deaths in Carroll County, bringing that total to 85. There were 346 new cases in the previous week.
“We’re seeing an amazing surge, apparently from the omicron variant,” Dr. Dan Bell, co-founder of the ECHO Clinic, said. “The state numbers are incredible – three times higher than ever before. Our average number of new daily cases is 9,000. It is estimated that one in 30 Arkansans are actively ill with it and we know the cases are higher than that because most of the self-test kits not being reported. We are at the peak of the third wave which is time to be as careful as possible until we get on the other side of this.”
Although people are fatigued after nearly two years of pandemic disruptions, Bell said it is still time for people to take it seriously.
“It is a reality,” Bell said. “It is heartbreaking. The best thing you can do is stay isolated. Don’t be out in public anytime without masks. For the next couple weeks, go into a mini lockdown. It looks like after that we will see the surge come down and life will get more back to normal. I don’t think there is anything new or different about what we have to do. We have to get back to basics: handwashing, social distancing, wearing masks, isolating a bit, and getting vaccinated. There are no other tools that we have.”
But even with those tools, there are some mathematical predictions that look at the incidence of Covid in your area and your risk factors that estimate even fully vaccinated people who are being careful can have a 50 percent chance of catching Covid. An online tool to estimate your risk is 19andme.covid19.mathematica.org. It looks at age, where you live, exercise habits, mask wearing, and how much you interact with others indoors.
“A lot of people are going to get this, a lot of people will get immunity, and omicron is not nearly as deadly, so not as many will end up in the hospital or dying,” Bell said. “We will end up on the other side of this being better for it. We can gradually learn to live with this and hope the next variant isn’t as deadly.”
Quite a few fully vaccinated people have reported coming down with Covid-19 recently, but Bell said most fully vaccinated people who catch the virus are far less likely to end up in the hospital, the ICU, or get long Covid.
“There is no question the vaccines are effective and helping, but they don’t make us bulletproof,” Bell said.
Both state and local numbers are likely to be considerably underestimated because of the large number of people using home test kits that are largely not reported to the state. Free test kits became available at the Eureka Springs Carnegie Public Library the week of Jan. 10 and were quickly snapped up. About 200 test kits, with two tests per kit, were distributed, with more expected to be available soon. Test kits are also available at other county libraries and the Carroll County Health Unit.
Arkansas has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the country, and breakthrough infections have made some people even more entrenched in their opposition to the shots. But Bell said there are quite a few “persuadable people,” those who have gotten the first two shots, but not the booster.
There are increasing concerns about the impact on staffing at medical facilities. Some staff quit because they refused to get vaccinated, and others left because of the stress or their own health problems. This has led to people who need hospitalization for Covid finding it difficult to be admitted to one of the larger hospitals in Northwest Arkansas that have special equipment and facilities for treating Covid patients.
“We have had a hard time getting patients transferred out,” Angie Shaw, CEO of Eureka Springs Hospital, said. “The hospitals are very short staffed and are turning away new patients because they don’t have enough staff to provide proper care.”
Shaw said another issue is that with decreased testing available, and the number of people with Covid cases increasing so dramatically, a lot of facilities are seeing people clogging up the emergency rooms seeking Covid testing.
“There is definitely a strain,” she said. “Our demand for testing has increased ten-fold. Our physician commended us that we are still offering outpatient testing at our facility. He said a lot of the staff at other facilities are put in harm’s way by bringing patients inside for Covid testing. It really increases the risk factor for staff and patients.”
Shaw said some people are seeking testing too early. If you have been exposed, quarantine for five days and then get tested if you develop symptoms. Bell said because there is a shortage of test kits, tests should be prioritized for frontline workers such as people who work in healthcare, teachers, paramedics and police.
Drive-through Covid testing is available at the hospital by calling (479) 253-7400. Free first, second and booster shots of Covid vaccines are available for adults and children 5 and older Fridays from 10 a.m. – 1 p.m. at the hospital clinic without an appointment.
Dr. Jim Dudley had Covid a year ago and credits the Regeneron monoclonal antibody infusion with helping him recover. He has since had three shots of the Moderna vaccine. Right now, he is excited about Pfizer’s new anti-viral pill, Paxlovid, that can be taken for five days.
“They are saying it is 89 percent effective in preventing hospitalization or death,” Dudley said. “That is a game changer, a treatment available for people when they first get diagnosed. I think this will make a big difference, especially in people who have not taken the vaccine.”
Dudley is encouraged by recent news that new cases are waning in some of the big cities first hit by the surge. “Maybe if we get through this bout, it will be a little bit back to normal,” Dudley said. “Hopefully, we will have a great spring.”