Carroll County resident Crystal Ursin has been listening to the near-daily Covid-19 press briefings from Gov. Asa Hutchinson and top state health officials. While she finds the briefings helpful, she is also concerned about information that is not provided that she believes the public has a right to know.
Ursin, a watchdog citizen scientist, also evaluates news reports, sends questions to the Arkansas Department of Health (ADH) and correlates that information with what is said at the press briefings. She is concerned that sometimes things don’t add up, like bed availability in Northwest Arkansas.
Another concern has been how the ADH reports on the number of people with active cases of Covid-19 and those who are recovered. Recently ADH listed 291 Covid-19 positive cases in Carroll County with 219 recovered and six deaths. Arkansas had 34,655 cases with 27,283 listed as recovered and 374 deaths.
Some might look at those “recovered” rates and conclude that Covid-19 is not such a big deal. However, there are many reports of people being ill for weeks or even months.
“I am very concerned the recovery rates are deceiving,” said Ursin, who frequently posts her observations on social media. “I truly believe there are a lot fewer recovered than they claim.”
Ursin originally sent an email to the ADH that asked, “How do you determine the ‘recovered’ number? The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has put out a guideline for recovered numbers, with requirements such as two negative tests before being considered recovered. What are the Arkansas requirements to be considered recovered? Seeing as some people are sick and contagious for more than two weeks, I am worried that the recovered number is not accurate.”
The response was, “The ADH mirrors guidelines set by the CDC. Since Arkansas follows CDC guidelines, a person who has Covid-19 will not be classified as recovered until they meet the guidelines. The ADH keeps thorough records. If an individual has already been confirmed positive with initial Covid-19 testing, any follow up testing will not be counted towards the total number of positive cases.”
Ursin then again asked ADH the exactly requirements to be considered recovered: “I have been unable to find the exact information on the CDC website. I found references of things like two negative tests, but no exact requirements.”
In response, ADH said: “It is difficult to find what the definition is! According to the CDC website, a person who has tested positive for COVID-19 would be considered recovered if they meet the conditions below:
- At least 3 days (72 hours) have passed since recovery defined as resolution of fever without the use of fever-reducing medications and improvement in respiratory symptoms (e.g., cough, shortness of breath); and,
- At least 10 days have passed since symptoms first appeared.”
Danyelle McNeill, public information officer for the ADH, answered a similar question from the Eureka Springs Independent about how recovered rates are determined.
“Arkansas uses the ten-day metric for recovery and has ever since CDC began recommending a period of 10 days for isolation after the onset of symptoms or from date of the test, if the person is asymptomatic,” McNeill wrote in an email. “After the 10-day period, a person may be released from isolation as long as their symptoms are improving and they have had no fever for at least three days. Previously, the isolation period was seven days.
“However, if we are unable to reach a person at the end of their isolation period (and they are not hospitalized and not deceased), we attempt to reach them for the three days after their isolation period is over. If we are unsuccessful in reaching them, we declare them recovered on day 14.
“This is not to be confused with the recommendation for a quarantine period of 14-days for exposed persons, which is the length of the incubation period for the virus. It has not changed.”
Ursin sees major shortcomings with that process.
“I think a lot of people are not answering their phones due to spam calls and telemarketers, which is also making it difficult for contact tracers to reach them,” Ursin said. “Many of my friends have stated they don’t answer unless they recognize the number. I can understand not going door-to-door. But maybe if you test positive, you should be given information on a certain time when someone will call. Basically, have them make an appointment. This way you know it’s not a spam call.”
Another issue is that many customers have not been able to pay their phone bill since losing their jobs due to the virus.
Ursin also counters a lot of false information on Facebook. There is a small, but vocal, component of local residents who maintain Covid-19 is not a big deal because the death rate is only one percent.
“It’s hard to argue with them,” Ursin said. “They are refusing to listen to science and doctors, and instead listening to unreliable sources. I try using science and data, and not my emotions. They don’t realize that even if the death rate is only one percent, that is still astronomically higher than the flu. Our current U.S. population is about 331 million, so if everyone got Covid-19 and only one percent died, that’s still 3,319,000 people.
“I know I, for one, will not risk giving Covid-19 to a friend or family member and risk them losing their lives. Also, they are completely ignoring that, yes, you will most likely survive, but there are potentially a ton of long-term health effects if you survive including but not limited to, blood clots, stroke, 25 percent lung capacity loss, amputations, heart failure, and many more. People who were completely healthy before Covid-19 are now developing these life-altering medical problems.”
There is significant push back on the recent state mandate to wear masks when unable to socially distance. One local resident recently posted a drawing on Facebook that likened the wearing a mask to suffocation and strangulation. There are conspiracy theories that the mask requirements are part of an effort to turn people into slaves to a world order.
The Harvard Kennedy School has done a poll that indicates about 30 percent of Americans believe in some kind of Covid-19 conspiracy theory.
Ursin said she has seen overwhelming data, experiments, and research showing that masks are highly effective in preventing droplets with infection from getting into the air.
“I don’t wear my mask to protect myself,” she said. “I wear it to protect others in case I am asymptotic or pre-symptomatic. For years and years people have used tissues to sneeze into to prevent saliva and other fluids to spray all over the place. The mask is basically a big tissue or handkerchief used to prevent your contaminated fluids from spreading. It’s easy to understand as long as you open your eyes and mind.”
Thank you for the information.