Two more Carroll County deaths from Covid-19 have been reported by the Arkansas Department of Health in the two weeks ending August 8, and the number of estimated active cases in the county has decreased from 143 to 86. That is the lowest number of active cases in the county since the middle of June. Arkansas active cases were estimated to be down 23 percent in the past 14 days.
ADH officials have expressed cautious optimism that the current wave of Covid-19 illnesses related primarily to the BA.5 variant has peaked and may be on the decline. On July 18, the state had an estimated 16,619 active cases. As of August 8, ADH estimated 13,554 cases.
Statewide hospitalizations have not dropped substantially and were estimated at 393 August 8 by ADH. The New York Times Covid data tracker website reported an average of 471 people were hospitalized because of Covid per day in the week ending August 8. The Times website indicated Carroll County cases decreased 59 percent in the past 14 days while deaths increased 43 percent, and that the average number of cases statewide was down 23 percent while deaths were up ten percent. While Covid-related deaths can occur quickly, in some cases it can take weeks or months for Covid-19 complications to cause fatalities.
Another indicator that the BA.5 wave may be receding is the demand for testing across the state has decreased significantly in the past two weeks. ADH reports about 4,000 PCR tests on July 23 compared to 2,000 on August 5, and 4,000 antigen tests on July 23 compared to about 330 tests August. 5.
Those figures don’t include home tests that are in broad use, especially as a third round of free tests has become available from covid.gov/tests or (800) 232-0233. People can use the free tests to find out if their symptoms are allergies, another illness, or Covid.
Eureka Springs Hospital reports that in the past week, there were 11 positive Covid tests out of 70 people tested. That is about a 15.7 percent positivity rate. The World Health Organization recommends positivity remain below five percent while Gov. Asa Hutchinson has said he would like to see positivity rates below ten percent.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has decreased the risk of Covid in Carroll County from medium to low, one of only eight counties in the state where risk is considered low. However, CDC uses hospitalization rates as part of their calculation of risk, and most seriously ill people in Carroll County are hospitalized in nearby counties with larger facilities that have Covid wards with equipment such as ventilators.