Katy Turnbaugh, a local rancher and retired science educator, believes there is increasing evidence of the devastating impacts of a warming climate, and that protecting the climate deserves to be treated like the emergency it is. But she is concerned the Russian war in Ukraine, combined with the continuing global pandemic, as well as the global inflationary challenge, has resulted in climate change mitigation being put on the back burner.
Turnbaugh, who has followed climate science for decades, said the most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes it clear that the changes are happening more rapidly than expected, and that there is limited time left to prevent the most devastating impacts.
“Flooding is worse, droughts worse, and there are many more fires,” Turnbaugh said. “The negative impacts are piling up. Climate modeling is becoming more rigorous and stable where we can depend upon the predictions. One of the things that caught my attention is that by 2040, there is a greater than 50 percent probability we will hit more than three degrees Fahrenheit of warming. That could be in my lifetime. At that point, we will see substantial differences in how livable our planet is.”
Like other farmers across the country, she is observing the effects of climate change on her ranch. Hay yields are coming down each year because it is too wet early in the year and then too dry. None of that is good for raising things.
“World grain yields are also coming down, and it is estimated we have less than 60 years of topsoil left,” she said. “Without topsoil, you don’t grow anything. Flooding removes topsoil. Conversely, in drought the grass is not growing as fast. If we have the same number of livestock on pastures – cattle, sheep, pigs, goats – eating closer to the germ of plants, the plants will have trouble recovering and won’t have enough leaf to cover the soil. You get heightened evaporation and then the wind blows.”
The war against Ukraine has exposed the vulnerability of the world relying on autocrats for oil and gas. At the very time the world needs to urgently cut back on burning fossil fuels whose carbon dioxide emissions are major contributors to climate change, there are now efforts to extract more fossil fuels to reduce reliance on Russia.
Turnbaugh said it is urgent to turn the corner and start investing heavily in solutions.
“We have been so distracted with everything else, we have let the ball go on this,” she said. “As serious as Covid is, climate change is far more serious. We can’t keep putting our heads in the sand. Folks, roll up your sleeves and go to work on this. Act like a citizen of Planet Earth.”
Bill McKibben, White House advisor on Climate Change, has advocated President Biden use the emergency powers act to dramatically ramp up heat pump production in the U.S. for both domestic and European use, which would further reduce allied reliance on Russian gas.
“Bring heat pump manufacturing back to the U.S., supply allies with something they need, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and poke a stick in Putin’s eye all at once,” Turnbaugh said. “The high efficiency heat pump returns three units of energy for every unit of energy expended. This could be very helpful, especially in Western Europe where it typically is not gawd awful cold.”
Turnbaugh, who also has solar panels and passive solar buildings on her ranch, has recently installed two new high efficiency heat pumps at her home. Also known as mini splits, this type of energy efficient heating and air conditioning unit reduces greenhouse gas emissions while lowering power bills.
She advocates “deep adaptation,” which is a movement that advocates strong measures to adapt to an unraveling of western industrial lifestyles.
“The adaptive piece is going to be critical,” Turnbaugh said. “We are going to have to look at a variety of changes including the type of appliances we use, level of insulation, orientation of new buildings, and retrofitting older structures to make them more energy efficient. We are all, not just GM or the government, going to have to adapt on a personal level. We are all going to have to be flexible in our thinking and our living. In general, it seems to me that when I see people taking some ownership for some aspects of life, like having a couple backyard chickens and a garden, I find they are happier. Caring for and nurturing yourself, as well as the planet, is very good for humans.”
Transportation is another huge issue that has to be a big part of mitigation. Turnbaugh said we need to get where we are going using fewer resources. And people will need to use less energy to heat and cool places of worship, workplaces, schools and homes.
“I think mitigation will parallel our cost,” she said. “When energy costs more, we will use less. When food is more expensive, people will have more home gardens. We will have to get more creative. We will need to do more within our communities. It will not make sense at some point to transport food or a car from halfway across the world. Things will need to be produced closer to home.
“It is also important to look at it from the standpoint of where is our long-term security. Europe relying on a dictatorship for their energy is troubling. It is not going smoothly right now. Think about how important democracy is to us and how we fund it with every dollar we spend.”
Water shortages being seen in California, which produces a large percent of the nation’s fresh food, are at the breaking point. With California getting hotter and drier, people may have to rely on local produce rather than produce shipped from California.
Another big concern is that Russia and Ukraine produce an immense amount of grain. The war is disrupting planting, leading to concern about widespread famine in parts of the world that were already struggling to survive.
“We may need to adapt what grains we grow,” she said. “Seeds from sub-Saharan Africa might be the grains we can use as desertification encroaches on our lovely, irrigated fields. I think when we look at urban planning, that needs to change very quickly. People having these half-acre yards of Kentucky bluegrass, we can’t afford to irrigate that. We will need to adapt.
“And I think we will have joy when we do. It is far more interesting to have a xeriscaped yard, an efficient way of using drought-tolerant plants and grasses to conserve water, than this monotone. We can have fun with it if we allow ourselves to be flexible. I think we will do just fine if we maintain that flexibility and throw in a little grit.”