Even for people well versed in the science of climate change, presentations by Myria Allen on Nov. 20 were alarming. Urgency is growing to do something to reduce carbon emissions before it is too late.
Threats include rising heat making some areas of the planet uninhabitable. By the end of the century, parts of Arkansas may see 150 days a year of temperatures over 90°, more than four times what it is now. Higher temperatures are melting the polar ice caps, leading to sea level rise that could inundate many east coast cities such as New York and Miami, leading to mass migration. Arkansas is already seeing more severe weather including intense rain, flooding and groundwater depletion because of more agricultural use and less absorption in aquifers.
The presentation by Allen was one of 1,700 Climate Reality presentations by 1,300 people delivered in all 50 states, 80 countries and seven continents. “That mobilization is just tremendous,” she said.
Allen has been doing research on how wildfires in the West have become more severe and numerous as the amount of carbon dioxide in the air has risen to levels not seen for three million years. Allen is a professor, author and researcher at the University of Arkansas, but stressed that the program she presented was speaking as a concerned citizen and Climate Reality leader, not as a representative of the UofA.
“It’s the first time in the history of Climate Reality that so many of us have been out talking in communities like yours,” Allen said. “I was so excited and elated to be part of the global day of conversation meeting with you all in Eureka Springs speaking at both the library and the high school. I particularly enjoyed meeting with the students. It gave me hope. It’s our responsibility to use our intellect and communication skills to help protect the people, places, creatures and other things we love.”
Five or more years ago, it was harder to convince many people that climate change was real.
“But now we all know it is here,” Allen said, who specializes in communications and sustainability. “In my own research about how climate change has made wildfires out West more frequent and damaging, more than half, 57 percent, of the people in our study said that climate change is real and they perceived it as a threat. In a national study I conducted five years ago, that number was closer to 18 percent.”
With near daily news about historic flooding, sea level rise, droughts and record temperatures, it is hard to deny the impacts.
“Now we are in climate change, with impacts even more serious than we expected,” Allen said. “All the disasters are interconnected and the energy of them is feeding back on each other. There is a negative feedback loop causing threats to magnify.”
One of the things she appreciates about the Climate Reality leadership is they help draw data from around the world together to help us better understand how things fit together. The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gives a report every four to five years, and the most recent report was devastating.
“The range of the problems and threats are much more severe than expected,” Allen said. “The time to act is now. We can’t wait any longer and we can’t wait on politicians who have failed to act for decades. The good news is that in a lot of communities, businesses and families understand the threats and are doing their best to address them. We just need a lot more people. I don’t want people to lose hope. I want them to feel in companionship with other people who are trying to make a difference. Being hopeless is not an option.”
Allen explored why climate change is happening and the associated problems with it, what we can do about it, such as phasing out fossil fuels in favor of green energy alternatives, and a discussion about if we will change, including information about the critical 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.
A poll by the Arkansas Advanced Energy Association shows most people in Arkansas favor taking action: 81 percent said Arkansas’ political leaders should develop policies that encourage energy efficiency and expand access to renewable energy; 72 percent believe we should retire one or more coal-fired power plants and replace them with natural gas-fired power plants as well as using more renewable energy sources and energy efficiency.
Allen has been doing research on wildfires in the West in conjunction with Dr. Matt Spialek, UofA, and Dr. Christopher Craig, Murray State University, Kentucky. Their first study looked at the 2017 wildfires in the northern Rocky Mountains of Montana, Idaho and South Dakota. Residential populations continue to grow in wildland urban interface areas located in close proximity to forests, thus increasing residents’ wildfire risks and threatening their health, safety, and property.
“Despite a shift in United States wildfire management policy beginning in 2000, the 2017 fire season was one of the worst on record in the northern Rocky Mountains resulting in billions of dollars in damage and multiple casualties,” Allen said. “We found residents who perceived climate change is occurring and believe climate change presents risks to them and their loved ones had a clearer understanding of the link between climate change and local conditions such as drought.”
The second study examined the psychological, social, and geographic factors that motivate individuals to create, share, and seek wildfire preparedness and adaptation messages within disaster communication ecologies. In Northern California alone, the July 2018 Mendocino Complex Fire burned over 459,123 acres making it the largest fire in state history. In November 2018, the Camp Fire resulted in $16.5 billion in damages and more than 80 deaths.
“Climate change and its subsequent impact on wildfires threatens the environmental, physical, and overall well-being of communities,” Allen said.
The study showed that in the communities that did not experience fires, individuals who perceived climate change as a greater risk were more likely to believe that people in their community were taking action to reduce climate-related disasters. Those who thought people in their community were taking such action expressed a greater willingness to contact local, state and federal government officials about wildfire and extreme weather events. Individuals more likely to talk about wildfire risk and household preparedness also expressed greater intent to communicate with government officials about larger scale efforts to address fire and extreme weather events.
“So, it’s important that communities start talking about climate change and threats of natural disaster and form community communication resources and gathering spots to do so, and then to start preparing,” Allen said. “Once communities do so they are more likely to encourage elected officials to take action. Having such conversations does two things: it builds communication bonds among citizens and norms that influence other people to take action, and it creates a culture where its normal to reach out to elected officials of all levels to discuss the need to take action.”
For more information or to request a presentation for your own organization, see climaterealityproject.org/
Allen is also co-author with other researchers on the problems associated with increased plastics in our oceans. The projection is that by 2050 there will be more plastic than fish in the ocean.